Kay, J, 2001. "Ecosystems, Science and Sustainability", in Ulgiati, S., Brown, M.T., Giampietro, M., Herendeen, R., Mayumi, K., (eds) Proceedings of the international workshop: Advances in Energy Studies: exploring supplies, constraints and strategies, Porto Venere, Italy, 23-27 May, 2000 pp. 319-328

The dynamics of ecosystems and human systems need to be addressed in the context of Post-Normal Science grounded in complex systems thinking. We portray these systems as Self-Organizing Holarchic Open (SOHO) systems and interpret their behaviours and structures with reference to non-equilibrium thermodynamics; holons, propensities, and canons; and information and attractors. Given the phenomena exhibited by SOHO systems, conventional science approaches to modelling and forecasting are inappropriate, as are prevailing explanations in terms of linear causality and stochastic properties. Instead, narratives in the form of scenarios to depict morphogenetic causal loops, autocatalysis, and multiple possible pathways for development need to be considered. These narratives are used to examine the issues of human preferences and choices concerning the preferred attributes of particular SOHO systems. They provide a basis for adaptive management, monitoring and appropriate structures for governance. A heuristic framework to guide reasoning in this vein is presented, and reiterative steps for applying it are identified. This provides a coherent conceptual basis, in the workings of both natural systems and decision systems, for the practice of Post-Normal Science.

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