REFERENCE: Kay, J., Boyle, M., "A hierarchical conceptual model for discussing the relationships between natural ecosystems and societal systems" for Drake, J.A., C.R. Zimmermann, S. Gavrilets, and T. Fukami (eds), Complexity Emerging: a paradigm for ecological thought. Columbia University Press. under review

A hierarchical conceptual model for discussing the relationships between natural ecosystems and societal systems

Kay, J., Boyle, M.

A new understanding of ecosystems, as complex systems, is emerging. Their hierarchical nature requires that they be studied from different types of perspectives and at different scales of examination. Thus a diversity of perspectives is required for understanding. Ecosystems are self-organizing. Their dynamics are largely a function of feedback loops and, as such, emergence and surprise are normal occurrences. . Inherent uncertainty and limited predictability are inescapable consequences of these system phenomena. Such systems organize about attractors. Even when the environmental situation changes, the system's feedback loops tend to maintain its current state. However, when ecosystem change does occur, it tends to be very rapid and even catastrophic. When precisely the change will occur, and what state the system will change to, are often not predictable. These observations form the basis for a discussion of the relationship between natural ecosystems and societal systems vis a vis sustainability.

Ecological systems are self-organizing dissipative systems whose manifestation reflects the state of the physical environment and the exergy, materials, and information available to them. Using this observation, and ideas from complex systems thinking, we have developed a conceptual model which explicitly describes the recursive nesting and linkages between ecological and societal systems at different scales. The model identifies the important ecological process and structures, how they set the stage for the important socio-economic processes and structures, and how these in turn influence the ecological processes and structures. It closes the ecological-societal loop. This model is a centerpiece for an approach to sustainability which is rooted in complex systems theory.

As this paper is in the review process it is not available on my WWW site. However if you would like a copy of the draft, please send me an e-mail and I will send you a single copy for your personal use.

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